Greece is selling 5 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of seven-year bonds, its first debt offering since the European Union agreed to help the nation finance the region’s biggest budget deficit.
Greece will price the securities to yield 310 basis points more than the benchmark mid-swap rate, according to a banker involved in the transaction, who declined to be identified before the sale is completed. The 6 percent yield is the same as the nation’s existing seven-year notes, according to composite prices on Bloomberg.
“This looks a lot more confident than their other recent issues, which came with a decent discount,” said Toby Nangle, director of asset allocation at Barings Investment Services Ltd. in London. “The market’s been expecting 5 billion euros, so if they come with less than that, it’s probably a signal the demand wasn’t there.”
Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government must raise about 53 billion euros this year, 15.5 billion euros of it by the end of May. Failure to do so could spark a new round of the fiscal crisis and trigger the use of the aid plan to stand behind Greece’s debt crafted by EU leaders in Brussels on March 25.
News of the sale pushed up the cost of default insurance on Greece’s debt. Credit-default swaps on the nation climbed 6 basis points to 301 basis points, according to CMA DataVision. The price of the swaps soared to as high as 428 basis points on Feb. 4 when it seemed likely Greece’s debt crisis would spread to its southern European neighbours.
‘First of Many’
The yield on the new notes is 6 percent, compared with 6.28 percent on Greece’s 5 billion euros of 10-year benchmark bonds issued March 4. The country’s five-year notes sold on Jan. 26 now yield 5.71 percent, Bloomberg data show.
“This deal is likely to be first of many to get Greece through its April and May funding needs,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. “Price guidance on the bond looks decent.”
Greek government bonds are the worst performer in the 16- nation euro region this year, handing investors a loss of 0.11 percent, compared with gains of 0.58 percent and 1.97 percent from Portuguese and Spanish debt, according to Bloomberg/EFFAAS indexes.
Greece hired Alpha Bank AE, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Emporiki Bank SA, ING Groep NV and Societe Generale SA to manage the sale of new bonds, according to two other bankers.
‘Benchmark Size’
Petros Christodoulou, head of the debt management agency in Athens declined to comment on the bond sale in an interview today, other than to say it would be of “benchmark size.” The aid mechanism removes the risk of Greece failing to repay bond investors and “should tighten the spreads materially,” he said in an e-mailed response to questions on March 26.
Papandreou demanded financial aid from the EU to help Greece reduce its borrowing costs, which he says were unsustainably high. Today’s bond sale pushed the extra yield investor require to hold 10-year Greek notes rather than benchmark German bunds 1 basis point wider to 306 basis points. The gap was 239 at the start of this year and as high as 396 in January. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Euro-area countries would grant more than half the loans and the IMF would provide the rest in the deal struck last week to help stabilize the euro, which has weakened 6 percent against the dollar this year. Papandreou says he never expects to seek assistance.
‘Counterproductive’
It’s “counterproductive” to speculate about the scenarios, including developments on spreads, that would spur an aid request under the new facility, he said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief European Economist Erik Nielsen estimates Greece will ultimately need an 18-month package of as much as 25 billion euros, with the IMF providing about 10 billion euros of that.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said March 27 in Cernobbio, Italy, that the EU’s strategy shows the “determination” of policy makers to “keep the euro stable.” Her German counterpart, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said in a Welt Online interview the same day that EU countries seeking IMF help must remain an exception and in the longer term “Europe must be able to solve” fiscal problems by itself.
Greece faces about 12 billion euros of debt repayments in April, with 8.2 billion euros of five-year bonds and about 3.9 billion euros of bills maturing that month. It must repay 8.5 billion euros of 10-year bonds in May.
Extending Maturity
“The seven-year tenor on Greece’s new bond is the only viable option, as it does need to extend the average maturity of its debt,” said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London. “I hope that the country boxes clever, and doesn’t upsize the offering as it did in January. If Greece does ramp up the deal size, a lot of long- term investors could be put off.”
While those are the only bond maturities Greece faces this year, the country needs an average of almost 2 billion euros a month to cover the budget deficit and interest payments on existing debt, its deficit reduction plan shows.
Greece aims to cut its shortfall by four percentage points in 2010 from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product, before satisfying the EU’s 3 percent limit by 2012.
“The announcement of the bailout mechanism for Greece should end the immediate liquidity and therefore default risk for Greece,” Laurence Mutkin, head of European fixed-income strategy in London at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report to clients. “However, we think that the longer term trajectory for Greece remains uncertain.”
Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company or country fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Monday, March 29, 2010
La confianza económica de la eurozona alcanza en marzo su nivel más alto en casi dos años
La confianza económica en el seno de la eurozona subió en marzo hasta los 97,7 puntos, lo que supone un avance de 1,8 enteros respecto al mes anterior y su mejor lectura desde mayo de 2008, según informó la Comisión Europea. En el conjunto de la UE la confianza económica subió a 99,6 puntos, frente a los 97,6 enteros de febrero.
La mayoría de los países miembros registró una mejora generalizada de la confianza. Entre los principales países de la UE, Alemania mejoró 3,4 puntos, seguida de Polonia (+2,7), Reino Unido (+2,6) y Países Bajos (+2,4), mientras que la mejoría fue menos apreciable en Francia y España (+1,4 puntos). Por su parte, la economía italiana registró un descenso de la confianza de 1,5 enteros.
De este modo, la Comisión Europea destacó que, a pesar de la mejoría observada, todavía existen diferencias apreciables entre los países miembros, puesto que algunos como Polonia, Alemania, Francia e Italia se mantienen próximos a sus niveles históricos, otros países como Países bajos, Portugal, España y Grecia aún se sitúan por debajo.
La mayoría de los países miembros registró una mejora generalizada de la confianza. Entre los principales países de la UE, Alemania mejoró 3,4 puntos, seguida de Polonia (+2,7), Reino Unido (+2,6) y Países Bajos (+2,4), mientras que la mejoría fue menos apreciable en Francia y España (+1,4 puntos). Por su parte, la economía italiana registró un descenso de la confianza de 1,5 enteros.
De este modo, la Comisión Europea destacó que, a pesar de la mejoría observada, todavía existen diferencias apreciables entre los países miembros, puesto que algunos como Polonia, Alemania, Francia e Italia se mantienen próximos a sus niveles históricos, otros países como Países bajos, Portugal, España y Grecia aún se sitúan por debajo.
Grecia emite más bonos a siete años para captar 5.000 millones de euros
Grecia lanzó hoy una nueva emisión de bonos a siete años para obtener, al menos, 5.000 millones de euros, cuatro días después del acuerdo alcanzado entre los líderes de la zona del euro para sacar al país de su delicada situación financiera.
El Organismo griego de Gestión de Deuda Pública anunció hoy que los bancos encargados de la emisión, que vencerá en abril de 2017, son Alpha Bank, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Banco Comercial, ING y Societé Generale.
Fuentes financieras declararon a la prensa local que el objetivo de la emisión es captar 5.000 millones de euros, pero que si las condiciones son favorables, la cantidad podría ser mayor.
El tipo de interés de los bonos a siete años era el pasado viernes del 5,5%.
Entre abril y mayo, el Estado griego se enfrenta al pago de 24.000 millones de euros, más de la mitad de los 40.000 millones de euros de créditos que vencen en 2010.
Grecia ha comenzado a aplicar un estricto programa de austeridad para rebajar su déficit público actual del 12,7% del PIB para paliar su deuda pública, que supera los 300.000 millones de euros.
El Organismo griego de Gestión de Deuda Pública anunció hoy que los bancos encargados de la emisión, que vencerá en abril de 2017, son Alpha Bank, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Banco Comercial, ING y Societé Generale.
Fuentes financieras declararon a la prensa local que el objetivo de la emisión es captar 5.000 millones de euros, pero que si las condiciones son favorables, la cantidad podría ser mayor.
El tipo de interés de los bonos a siete años era el pasado viernes del 5,5%.
Entre abril y mayo, el Estado griego se enfrenta al pago de 24.000 millones de euros, más de la mitad de los 40.000 millones de euros de créditos que vencen en 2010.
Grecia ha comenzado a aplicar un estricto programa de austeridad para rebajar su déficit público actual del 12,7% del PIB para paliar su deuda pública, que supera los 300.000 millones de euros.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Dollar Heads for Biggest Quarterly Gain Versus Euro Since 2008
The dollar rose, poised for the biggest quarterly gain versus the euro since 2008, as European leaders’ struggle to forge a plan to bail out Greece pushed investors toward the perceived safety of the greenback.
The yen fell against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts this week as Japanese consumer prices dropped for a 12th month, increasing the chances the nation’s central bank will lag behind its peers in raising interest rates. The U.S. economy added jobs in March, a report is forecast to show next week.
“The dollar is still the safety currency,” said Jonathan Xiong, a senior portfolio manager and director at Mellon Capital Management Corp. in San Francisco, where he helps oversee $18 billion. “The European news that is coming out is unclear, clouded and uncertain. When investors are uncertain, what happens is they buy dollars.”
The dollar appreciated 0.9 percent to $1.3410 versus the euro, from $1.3530 a week earlier. It was headed for a gain of 6.8 percent for the quarter, the largest since it advanced 11.8 percent in the three months ended in September 2008.
The yen dropped 2.1 percent, the most since Dec. 4, to 92.52 per dollar, from 90.54 yen on March 19. It was set for a decline of 3.8 percent this month, the most since December. The euro rose 1.3 percent to 124.06 yen, from 122.51 last week.
IMF on Standby
The European currency strengthened yesterday after leaders of the 16 nations that use the euro put the International Monetary Fund on standby to aid debt-stricken Greece, seeking to snuff out a threat to the currency’s stability. They endorsed a plan that calls for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates, while voicing confidence Greece won’t need outside help to cut its budget deficit, Europe’s largest.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters in Brussels late on March 25 he was “extraordinarily happy that the governments of the euro area found out a workable solution.”
Earlier, the euro fell to a 10-month low versus the greenback after Trichet said an IMF role in funding a rescue for Greece would be “very, very bad.” He has expressed concern that turning to the Washington-based IMF would show Europe can’t address its problems.
The number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro versus the dollar compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- reached a record 74,917 contracts on March 23, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data last week. The amount was 46,341 on March 16.
Australia, Canada
The Australian and Canadian dollars fell versus the greenback for the first week this month amid speculation gains versus the U.S. dollar and the euro couldn’t be sustained.
Australia’s currency dropped 1.2 percent to 90.41 U.S. cents, from 91.54 cents on March 19. It fell 0.4 percent to A$1.4832 per euro, from A$1.4780 a week earlier.
“We’re seeing people get out of positions,” said Lauren Rosborough, a senior currency analyst at Westpac Banking Corp. in London. “The news from euro-zone officials has people looking to go long the euro against the Australian dollar.” A long position is a wager a currency will appreciate.
The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed, dropped 0.9 percent to C$1.0266 per U.S. dollar, while remaining near the strongest level in 20 months versus the greenback.
The U.S. currency rose against the yen before a report next week that’s expected to show the U.S. gained jobs in March, increasing the likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the Bank of Japan.
U.S. Employment
U.S. payrolls added 190,000 jobs in March, according to the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department releases the data April 2. The economy lost 36,000 jobs in February.
Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food slid 1.2 percent from a year earlier, after dropping a 1.3 percent in each of the preceding two months, the nation’s statistics bureau said yesterday in Tokyo. The data intensifies pressure on the central bank to eradicate the deflation that’s hampering the economic recovery.
Mexico’s peso was the only major currency that gained against the dollar this week, as an economic recovery in the U.S. fueled demand for the Latin American nation’s exports.
The peso gained 0.7 percent to 12.4962 per U.S. dollar, from 12.5854 on March 19. It has strengthened during six of the past seven weeks against the dollar.
The Mexican currency gained 4.8 percent against the dollar this year, the best performance among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Yuan forwards strengthened yesterday after a central-bank adviser said China may resume a “managed float” of the currency, bolstering optimism the government will allow appreciation.
Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards rose as much as 0.2 percent to 6.6675 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The contracts reflect bets the currency will gain 2.3 percent from the spot rate of 6.8270.
Brenntag Raises $1 Billion in Germany’s Second-Biggest 2010 IPO
The chemicals distributor owned by BC Partners Ltd., raised 747.5 million euros ($1 billion) in Germany’s second-biggest initial public offering since 2007.
Brenntag sold 14.95 million shares at 50 euros each in an IPO that was “multiple times” oversubscribed, the Muelheim, Germany-based company said in a regulatory statement yesterday. The IPO’s per-share price was 11 percent less than the high end of the original range of 46 euros to 56 euros. The stock will start trading tomorrow.
The offering came after Kabel Deutschland Holding AG, Germany’s biggest cable company, raised 759 million euros this month in the country’s largest IPO since Hamburg-based Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG’s 1.17 billion-euro deal in November 2007. The Stoxx 600 Europe Index’s rally to an 18-month high has helped revive initial sales in the region after Travelport Ltd. and New Look Group Plc postponed IPOs in February.
Brenntag sold 10.5 million new shares and 4.45 million from existing shareholders including an overallotment option. The company plans to use the money raised to expand in emerging markets and finance acquisitions.
Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of New York managed Brenntag’s IPO, along with Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.
BC Partners bought Brenntag in 2006 for about 3 billion euros, including debt. The chemical distributor has boosted profit by an average of 17 percent over the last five years by expanding in countries from Australia to South Africa.
Water Treatment
Brenntag, which has more than 11,000 employees, distributes acids, solvents and chemicals used in water treatment. The company has more than 10,000 products and 150,000 customers and says it’s the global market leader in full-line chemical distribution. It traces its roots to an egg-wholesaling company founded in 1874.
The European IPO market was slower to recover than the U.S. last year after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008 spurred a credit-market freeze. American offerings outpaced sales in western Europe by about four times in 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Private equity-backed deals helped lead last month’s slump in IPOs, as New York-based Blackstone Group LP postponed Travelport’s listing and New Look Group, the Weymouth, England- based fashion retailer owned by Permira Advisers LLP and Apax Partners Worldwide LLP, shelved its offering.
‘Ice Breakers’
The initial sales by Kabel Deutschland and Brenntag may be the “ice breakers” needed to spur more deals this year, New York-based Citigroup Inc. said this month. As many as 10 companies may hold IPOs in Germany, according to Citigroup’s German head of equity capital markets, Andreas Bernstorff.
Kabel Deutschland, Brenntag and African Barrick Gold Plc in London this month have each raised more than the largest U.S. offering of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. All three companies sold shares near the lower end of their price ranges, while U.S. IPOs this month from Carlsbad, California-based MaxLinear Inc. to Financial Engines Inc. of Palo Alto, California, raised more than originally sought.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Sample Cover Letter - Career Change
Your Name
Your Address Your City, State, Zip Code
Your Phone Number
Your Email
Company Name
Address City, State, Zip Code
Dear Hiring Manager:
This letter is to express my interest in discussing the Senior Customer Service Manager position posted on the XYZ Company web site. The opportunity presented in this listing is very appealing, and I believe that my experience and education will make me a competitive candidate for this position.
The key strengths that I possess for success in this position include, but are not limited to, the following:
Provide exceptional contributions to customer service for all customers.
Strive for continued excellence.
Strong communication skills.
I am a self-starter.
Eager to learn new things.
You will find me to be well-spoken, energetic, confident, and personable, the type of person on whom your customers will rely. I also have a wide breadth of experience of the type that gives you the versatility to place me in a number of contexts with confidence that the level of excellence you expect will be met. Please see my resume for additional information on my experience.
I hope that you'll find my experience and interests intriguing enough to warrant a face-to-face meeting, as I am confident that I could provide value to you and your customers as a member of your team.
I can be reached anytime via my cell phone, 555-555-5555. Thank you for your time and consideration. I look forward to speaking with you about this employment opportunity.
Sincerely,
FirstName LastName
Your Address Your City, State, Zip Code
Your Phone Number
Your Email
Company Name
Address City, State, Zip Code
Dear Hiring Manager:
This letter is to express my interest in discussing the Senior Customer Service Manager position posted on the XYZ Company web site. The opportunity presented in this listing is very appealing, and I believe that my experience and education will make me a competitive candidate for this position.
The key strengths that I possess for success in this position include, but are not limited to, the following:
Provide exceptional contributions to customer service for all customers.
Strive for continued excellence.
Strong communication skills.
I am a self-starter.
Eager to learn new things.
You will find me to be well-spoken, energetic, confident, and personable, the type of person on whom your customers will rely. I also have a wide breadth of experience of the type that gives you the versatility to place me in a number of contexts with confidence that the level of excellence you expect will be met. Please see my resume for additional information on my experience.
I hope that you'll find my experience and interests intriguing enough to warrant a face-to-face meeting, as I am confident that I could provide value to you and your customers as a member of your team.
I can be reached anytime via my cell phone, 555-555-5555. Thank you for your time and consideration. I look forward to speaking with you about this employment opportunity.
Sincerely,
FirstName LastName
How to Make a Resume
FIRST
Start by making a list of all the jobs you had with the dates. Don't leave anything out. Include jobs, awards, educational degrees, skills, personal projects: anything that would be impressive and/or interesting to anyone (even if not impressive or interesting to everyone). Even after your resume is finished, maintain this list. That way, you don't have to revisit those portions year after year. Organize your list by category
SECOND
Tailor your list to the position for which you are applying (this will require a bit of research). Trim out each item that is not directly relevant to the job and add on two or three sentences explaining the relevance of each item. Whenever possible, list your experience in terms of accomplishments and achievements rather than tasks and responsibilities. Show your success. You may end up with many different versions of your resume, each one emphasizing a different set of skills.
THIRD
Consider stating your objective. Again, keep this short and to the point, a single sentence. Personalize it to the position. Make sure your objective doesn't contradict the position you are applying for. Many employers will ignore an objective; so if it doesn't add something to the resume, don't include it.
FOURTH
It's time to format. Mind the look and feel of your resume. It should have clean lines and be easy to read. Make it two pages max, and only one page if you're just out of school - if you have more to share, save it for the interview. The font should be 10-12, no smaller, no bigger, but you should be able to read it well when you print it out. Black and white is best unless you're emphasizing your artistic or publishing skills (and even then be careful and tasteful). Keep the format neat and organized.
FIVTH
Include an address, phone number and email address. But, do not include an email that shows you shouldn't be taken seriously, such as beerandboys@email.com. Don't use your current employer's name, number or email, either. If necessary, get an extra email address with a professional name that you can use for job searches.
SIXTH
Proofread, proofread and proofread again. Have a friend or professional that you trust proofread. Have an friend proofread. Have a stranger proofread. Then proofread it again and again and again! Remember, this decides your future!! Take criticism well and remember that just because someone suggests something doesn't mean you have to make the change. Also,tell people to be frank. Don't boast about written communication skills with a typo.
SEVENTH
Toot your own horn, but be careful you don't toot it too hard you don't want to inflict disadvantageous damage. There is a fine line between fun and permanent damage.
EIGHTH
Follow directions. This is a huge indicator of responsibility to a hiring manager. If the ad says "no calls please," then don't call! If the job description asks you to provide your salary history, then you will probably want to include that information in your resume. However, this is not an absolute: it may limit your negotiating power to get the best possible salary.
How to make a resume
Start by making a list of all the jobs you had with the dates. Don't leave anything out. Include jobs, awards, educational degrees, skills, personal projects: anything that would be impressive and/or interesting to anyone (even if not impressive or interesting to everyone). Even after your resume is finished, maintain this list. That way, you don't have to revisit those portions year after year. Organize your list by category
SECOND
Tailor your list to the position for which you are applying (this will require a bit of research). Trim out each item that is not directly relevant to the job and add on two or three sentences explaining the relevance of each item. Whenever possible, list your experience in terms of accomplishments and achievements rather than tasks and responsibilities. Show your success. You may end up with many different versions of your resume, each one emphasizing a different set of skills.
THIRD
Consider stating your objective. Again, keep this short and to the point, a single sentence. Personalize it to the position. Make sure your objective doesn't contradict the position you are applying for. Many employers will ignore an objective; so if it doesn't add something to the resume, don't include it.
FOURTH
It's time to format. Mind the look and feel of your resume. It should have clean lines and be easy to read. Make it two pages max, and only one page if you're just out of school - if you have more to share, save it for the interview. The font should be 10-12, no smaller, no bigger, but you should be able to read it well when you print it out. Black and white is best unless you're emphasizing your artistic or publishing skills (and even then be careful and tasteful). Keep the format neat and organized.
FIVTH
Include an address, phone number and email address. But, do not include an email that shows you shouldn't be taken seriously, such as beerandboys@email.com. Don't use your current employer's name, number or email, either. If necessary, get an extra email address with a professional name that you can use for job searches.
SIXTH
Proofread, proofread and proofread again. Have a friend or professional that you trust proofread. Have an friend proofread. Have a stranger proofread. Then proofread it again and again and again! Remember, this decides your future!! Take criticism well and remember that just because someone suggests something doesn't mean you have to make the change. Also,tell people to be frank. Don't boast about written communication skills with a typo.
SEVENTH
Toot your own horn, but be careful you don't toot it too hard you don't want to inflict disadvantageous damage. There is a fine line between fun and permanent damage.
EIGHTH
Follow directions. This is a huge indicator of responsibility to a hiring manager. If the ad says "no calls please," then don't call! If the job description asks you to provide your salary history, then you will probably want to include that information in your resume. However, this is not an absolute: it may limit your negotiating power to get the best possible salary.
How to make a resume
Euro Rises Vs Dollar, Yen On ECB Trichet Remarks
The euro rose against the dollar and yen in Asia Friday as remarks by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet in support of potential International Monetary Fund aid for Greece prompted U.S. hedge funds to pick up the single currency.
Traders said the euro's near term direction will depend on how euro-zone leaders conclude their discussions on the issue later in the day. Leaders at a two-day summit in Brussels have so far backed a deal under which they and the IMF would jointly bail out Greece should the country's debt troubles intensify.
Speaking at a news conference during Asian morning hours, Trichet said joint financial aid for Greece from the EU and IMF would be a "workable solution," and denied criticizing the inclusion of IMF financing in any rescue package.
On Thursday, the euro fell after Trichet said in a prerecorded television interview that IMF aid for Greece, instead of from euro-zone member countries, would be "very, very bad."
The currency stood at $1.3334 as of 0350 GMT, compared with its New York level of $1.3282 late Thursday, and was at Y123.51 compared with Y123.13.
"Players took Trichet's (later) remarks positively and bought back the euro," said Yuzo Sakai, a foreign-exchange manager at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow. "Expectations are growing that (the EU) may come up with some sort of plan."
The euro's near-term direction depends on the final results of the EU summit, dealers said. If the EU and the IMF agree to an effective joint plan to support Greece, that may buoy the euro briefly toward Y123.70 and $1.3360 due to the receding risk of Greek default, dealers said.
In the longer term, however, the currency's outlook remains bleak amid uncertainty over how Greece is going to reduce its huge debt, and the possibility of similar problems emerging in other European countries, dealers said. The euro could fall to Y117.00 and $1.2700 in the coming month, they added.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the yen after rising to a two-and-a-half month high overnight in New York, as Japanese exporters sold the dollar on the view that Y93.00 is an attractive level at which to sell.
As of 0450 GMT, the U.S. unit stood at Y92.55, compared to a high of Y92.96 overnight. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.892 from 82.169.
Traders said the euro's near term direction will depend on how euro-zone leaders conclude their discussions on the issue later in the day. Leaders at a two-day summit in Brussels have so far backed a deal under which they and the IMF would jointly bail out Greece should the country's debt troubles intensify.
Speaking at a news conference during Asian morning hours, Trichet said joint financial aid for Greece from the EU and IMF would be a "workable solution," and denied criticizing the inclusion of IMF financing in any rescue package.
On Thursday, the euro fell after Trichet said in a prerecorded television interview that IMF aid for Greece, instead of from euro-zone member countries, would be "very, very bad."
The currency stood at $1.3334 as of 0350 GMT, compared with its New York level of $1.3282 late Thursday, and was at Y123.51 compared with Y123.13.
"Players took Trichet's (later) remarks positively and bought back the euro," said Yuzo Sakai, a foreign-exchange manager at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow. "Expectations are growing that (the EU) may come up with some sort of plan."
The euro's near-term direction depends on the final results of the EU summit, dealers said. If the EU and the IMF agree to an effective joint plan to support Greece, that may buoy the euro briefly toward Y123.70 and $1.3360 due to the receding risk of Greek default, dealers said.
In the longer term, however, the currency's outlook remains bleak amid uncertainty over how Greece is going to reduce its huge debt, and the possibility of similar problems emerging in other European countries, dealers said. The euro could fall to Y117.00 and $1.2700 in the coming month, they added.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the yen after rising to a two-and-a-half month high overnight in New York, as Japanese exporters sold the dollar on the view that Y93.00 is an attractive level at which to sell.
As of 0450 GMT, the U.S. unit stood at Y92.55, compared to a high of Y92.96 overnight. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.892 from 82.169.
Asian Currencies Decline for Week on Euro Region Debt Concerns
Asian currencies declined this week, led by the Singapore dollar and South Korean won, as discord among leaders in European nations on how to solve Greece’s debt woes curbed investor appetite for emerging- market assets.
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index pared the week’s losses and the euro climbed from a 10-month low a day after European leaders endorsed a plan to assist Greece. Asian currencies and stocks weakened on March 25 after a Fitch Ratings downgrade of Portugal fanned concern Greece will not be alone in struggling to pay its debt.
“We’ve seen a big move in the euro on concerns in Greece, that’s led to a pretty buoyant dollar against Asian currencies across the board,” said Bernard Yeung, Hong Kong- based head of currency trading for Asia at National Australia Bank Ltd.
The won declined 0.5 percent for the week to 1,138.80 against the dollar in Seoul and yesterday touched 1,148.40, the lowest level since March 3. The Singapore dollar fell 0.6 percent to S$1.4043.
Leaders of the 16-nation euro region agreed on a Franco- German proposal in Brussels on March 25 for a mix of bilateral and International Monetary Fund loans for Greece at market interest rates. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he was “happy” a solution had been found, toning down earlier criticism over the IMF’s involvement.
Euro Gains
The euro advanced 1 percent to $1.3410 at 5 p.m. in New York yesterday, from $1.3272 on March 25, its lowest level since May. The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-traded currencies, trimmed the week’s loss to 0.2 percent.
Central banks in Thailand and Taiwan this week stressed they will intervene in currency markets after their respective exchange rates reached the strongest levels in at least 18 months.
Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase said on March 25 that the central bank will act if the baht is “too volatile.” The currency has weakened 0.5 percent from its highest in 22 months touched a week ago.
The baht traded little changed yesterday at 32.43 against the dollar and dropped 0.4 percent from March 19, the first weekly slide in almost two months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The risks in the euro zone increased demand for the dollar and that puts downward pressure on Asian currencies,” said Hideki Hayashi, a global economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There has also been intervention concern after the recent appreciation in the baht.”
Taiwan Intervention
Taiwan’s dollar traded unchanged yesterday at NT$31.88 against the greenback, and fell 0.3 percent during the five- day period, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It has dropped 0.7 percent from a September 2008 high of NT$31.667 on March 18.
The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) said on March 25 it will enter the currency market when necessary to “maintain order” if “irregular factors caused large fluctuations.”
“The central bank will intervene if the Taiwan dollar rises too fast,” said Tommy Huang, a fixed-income securities trader at Taiwan International Securities Corp. in Taipei. “It will probably accept slow appreciation.”
Indonesia’s rupiah posted its first weekly decline in almost two months on speculation Japanese manufacturers based in Indonesia were sending earnings home before the end of their fiscal year on March 31.
Japanese Companies
The currency reached a 19-month high on March 17 as overseas investors plowed funds into local stocks and bonds. The rupiah has since retreated 0.4 percent. The volatility is being “managed” by Bank Indonesia, according to Bambang Eko Joewono, head of the global-markets division at PT Bank UOB Buana.
“There’s some dollar demand from Japanese companies,” Jakarta-based Joewono said. “BI has been matching the flows coming from offshore” with demand for the greenback from oil company PT Pertamina and other state-owned firms, he said.
The rupiah fell 0.3 percent this week to 9,128 per dollar, while Malaysia’s ringgit lost 0.2 percent to 3.3070. The Philippine peso and China’s yuan were little changed at 45.507 and 6.8274, respectively.
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index pared the week’s losses and the euro climbed from a 10-month low a day after European leaders endorsed a plan to assist Greece. Asian currencies and stocks weakened on March 25 after a Fitch Ratings downgrade of Portugal fanned concern Greece will not be alone in struggling to pay its debt.
“We’ve seen a big move in the euro on concerns in Greece, that’s led to a pretty buoyant dollar against Asian currencies across the board,” said Bernard Yeung, Hong Kong- based head of currency trading for Asia at National Australia Bank Ltd.
The won declined 0.5 percent for the week to 1,138.80 against the dollar in Seoul and yesterday touched 1,148.40, the lowest level since March 3. The Singapore dollar fell 0.6 percent to S$1.4043.
Leaders of the 16-nation euro region agreed on a Franco- German proposal in Brussels on March 25 for a mix of bilateral and International Monetary Fund loans for Greece at market interest rates. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he was “happy” a solution had been found, toning down earlier criticism over the IMF’s involvement.
Euro Gains
The euro advanced 1 percent to $1.3410 at 5 p.m. in New York yesterday, from $1.3272 on March 25, its lowest level since May. The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-traded currencies, trimmed the week’s loss to 0.2 percent.
Central banks in Thailand and Taiwan this week stressed they will intervene in currency markets after their respective exchange rates reached the strongest levels in at least 18 months.
Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase said on March 25 that the central bank will act if the baht is “too volatile.” The currency has weakened 0.5 percent from its highest in 22 months touched a week ago.
The baht traded little changed yesterday at 32.43 against the dollar and dropped 0.4 percent from March 19, the first weekly slide in almost two months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The risks in the euro zone increased demand for the dollar and that puts downward pressure on Asian currencies,” said Hideki Hayashi, a global economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There has also been intervention concern after the recent appreciation in the baht.”
Taiwan Intervention
Taiwan’s dollar traded unchanged yesterday at NT$31.88 against the greenback, and fell 0.3 percent during the five- day period, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It has dropped 0.7 percent from a September 2008 high of NT$31.667 on March 18.
The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) said on March 25 it will enter the currency market when necessary to “maintain order” if “irregular factors caused large fluctuations.”
“The central bank will intervene if the Taiwan dollar rises too fast,” said Tommy Huang, a fixed-income securities trader at Taiwan International Securities Corp. in Taipei. “It will probably accept slow appreciation.”
Indonesia’s rupiah posted its first weekly decline in almost two months on speculation Japanese manufacturers based in Indonesia were sending earnings home before the end of their fiscal year on March 31.
Japanese Companies
The currency reached a 19-month high on March 17 as overseas investors plowed funds into local stocks and bonds. The rupiah has since retreated 0.4 percent. The volatility is being “managed” by Bank Indonesia, according to Bambang Eko Joewono, head of the global-markets division at PT Bank UOB Buana.
“There’s some dollar demand from Japanese companies,” Jakarta-based Joewono said. “BI has been matching the flows coming from offshore” with demand for the greenback from oil company PT Pertamina and other state-owned firms, he said.
The rupiah fell 0.3 percent this week to 9,128 per dollar, while Malaysia’s ringgit lost 0.2 percent to 3.3070. The Philippine peso and China’s yuan were little changed at 45.507 and 6.8274, respectively.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Los británicos no participarán en las ayudas a Grecia
El primer ministro británico, Gordon Brown, garantizó hoy a sus ciudadanos que el Reino Unido "no contribuirá directamente" en ninguna hipotética ayuda a Grecia en caso de que finalmente sea necesaria.
Brown, que compareció ante los periodistas al término del Consejo Europeo, recordó que el acuerdo alcanzado anoche sobre la fórmula para asistir a las finanzas griegas sólo incumbe a los países de la zona del euro y, por tanto, no afecta al Reino Unido.
Además, subrayó que "nadie" ha pedido en ningún momento "apoyo bilateral" para Grecia y que el respaldo se hará en cualquier caso de forma coordinada entre los países de la moneda única.
En este sentido, expresó su satisfacción por el hecho de que la "eurozona cumpla con sus responsabilidades".
Insistió también en que ninguno de los acuerdos alcanzados en Bruselas hará que el Reino Unido "ceda poderes a la UE" y subrayó que las referencias a un "gobierno económico" que figuran en algunos de los textos se refieren en todo momento a una mejor "gobernanza" y no a la creación de nuevas estructuras institucionales.
Brown, que compareció ante los periodistas al término del Consejo Europeo, recordó que el acuerdo alcanzado anoche sobre la fórmula para asistir a las finanzas griegas sólo incumbe a los países de la zona del euro y, por tanto, no afecta al Reino Unido.
Además, subrayó que "nadie" ha pedido en ningún momento "apoyo bilateral" para Grecia y que el respaldo se hará en cualquier caso de forma coordinada entre los países de la moneda única.
En este sentido, expresó su satisfacción por el hecho de que la "eurozona cumpla con sus responsabilidades".
Insistió también en que ninguno de los acuerdos alcanzados en Bruselas hará que el Reino Unido "ceda poderes a la UE" y subrayó que las referencias a un "gobierno económico" que figuran en algunos de los textos se refieren en todo momento a una mejor "gobernanza" y no a la creación de nuevas estructuras institucionales.
¿En que pais desarrollado tienes mas importancia el gasto público?
Entre los países desarrollados con mayor gasto público durante 2009 destacan sobre todo los escandinavos, liderados por Dinamarca, con un 57,7% del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB). Finlandia (56,2%) y Suecia (55,9%) cierran el podio. También por encima del 55% se encuentra Francia, que destina al gasto público una cifra comparable al 55,5% de su PIB. Aunque España se encuentra lejos de estas cotas, con un 46,3%, sí se sitúa por encima de la media de la OCDE (44,8%).Tabla:
En porcentajes
Dinamarca 57,7
Finlandia 56,2
Suecia 56,2
Islandia 55,9
Francia 55,5
Bélgica 54,0
Austria 52,7
Reino Unido 52,1
Italia 51,7
Portugal 51,6
...España 46,3
Media OCDE 44,8
Fuente: OCDE
En porcentajes
Dinamarca 57,7
Finlandia 56,2
Suecia 56,2
Islandia 55,9
Francia 55,5
Bélgica 54,0
Austria 52,7
Reino Unido 52,1
Italia 51,7
Portugal 51,6
...España 46,3
Media OCDE 44,8
Fuente: OCDE
Drafted by EU for Greece in Bid to Support Euro
European chiefs put the International Monetary Fund on standby to aid debt-stricken Greece, seeking to snuff out a threat to the stability of the euro.
Leaders of the 16-nation euro region endorsed a Franco- German proposal for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates, while voicing confidence that Greece won’t need outside help to cut Europe’s biggest budget deficit.
“We had to answer the question: How can people place long- term trust in the euro as a stable currency and how can a currency union combine solidarity and stability?” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after a European Union summit in Brussels today. “In this context, we really broke new ground.”
The summit sought to bury concerns that European divisions over aiding Greece would escalate the debt crisis and further undermine the currency after it sank to a 10-month low against the dollar.
The euro advanced 0.9 percent to $1.3393 at 4.50 p.m. in Brussels from $1.3270 late yesterday.
Greek bonds gained, pushing the two-year yield down 23 basis points today -- and 83 basis points on the week -- to 4.43 percent, the lowest since Jan. 21. Greece’s benchmark stock index rose 4.1 percent, the biggest gain since Feb. 9.
Risk Wiped Out
“The Brussels agreement wipes out the risk of default, the refinancing risk and raises the credibility of the government’s austerity plan,” Petros Christodoulou, head of the Athens-based Greek debt agency, said today in an e-mailed response to questions. “This should tighten the spreads materially starting from the short end.”
The extra yield that investors demand to buy 10-year Greek bonds over comparable German securities fell 9 basis points to 304 basis points. The spread remains above the 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis.
“The Greek fiscal crisis may be over for now, but sovereign stress is likely to remain a huge issue in the euro area for years to come,” David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, wrote in a note today. “The other euro-area countries suffering some sovereign stress at the moment are unlikely to view the Greek mechanism as any kind of attractive panacea.”
Under the accord brokered by Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, each euro-region country would provide non- subsidized loans to Greece based on its stake in the European Central Bank, a statement said.
EU-IMF Split
Europe would grant more than half the loans and the Washington-based IMF the rest. The plan would only be triggered if Greece runs out of fund-raising options.
“The objective of this mechanism will not be to provide financing at average euro-area interest rates, but to set incentives to return to market financing as soon as possible,” the EU statement said.
The IMF is watching the developments in Europe “closely,” spokeswoman Simonetta Nardin said in an e-mailed statement. “The fund always stands ready to consider a request from a member country for our financial assistance,” she said.
The size of the loans and interest rates were left unclear, and the EU didn’t spell out what would force it to step in.
“The definition of the emergency case is very fuzzy,” Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a note to investors. “As all euro-area countries will have to agree unanimously on the activation of the facility, the activation of the fund is very uncertain.”
‘Later’
Asked what would trigger a European rescue mission, EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters: “All this, we’ll work it out later.”
After objecting to a possible IMF intrusion on the $12 trillion euro-region economy, the ECB endorsed the package, with President Jean-Claude Trichet saying that European governments will remain in control of the process.
Trichet, who told France’s Public Senat television yesterday that surrendering control to the IMF would be “very, very bad,” held his own press conference after the agreement was struck to tone down the remarks.
“I never said the IMF intervention would be this and that,” Trichet said. “I wanted to preserve the responsibility of the governments of the euro area. That is my compass. And I think that is respected.”
Greek Plan
The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history.
Greece needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks. About 8.2 billion euros of debt matures April 20 and 8.5 billion euros on May 19, with about 3.9 billion euros of bills maturing in April.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Greece may ultimately get aid from the IMF worth about 20 billion euros over 18 months, according to an e-mailed note yesterday. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported the aid would total 22 billion euros, citing German officials.
The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU’s limit of 3 percent of GDP this year after the worst recession since at least World War II. While the euro’s German-designed “stability pact” sets financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been sanctioned since the currency debuted in 1999.
Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and today called for a toughening of the fiscal rules, which Germany forced the EU to water down in 2005 after three years of deficit overruns.
Source: businessweek
Leaders of the 16-nation euro region endorsed a Franco- German proposal for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates, while voicing confidence that Greece won’t need outside help to cut Europe’s biggest budget deficit.
“We had to answer the question: How can people place long- term trust in the euro as a stable currency and how can a currency union combine solidarity and stability?” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after a European Union summit in Brussels today. “In this context, we really broke new ground.”
The summit sought to bury concerns that European divisions over aiding Greece would escalate the debt crisis and further undermine the currency after it sank to a 10-month low against the dollar.
The euro advanced 0.9 percent to $1.3393 at 4.50 p.m. in Brussels from $1.3270 late yesterday.
Greek bonds gained, pushing the two-year yield down 23 basis points today -- and 83 basis points on the week -- to 4.43 percent, the lowest since Jan. 21. Greece’s benchmark stock index rose 4.1 percent, the biggest gain since Feb. 9.
Risk Wiped Out
“The Brussels agreement wipes out the risk of default, the refinancing risk and raises the credibility of the government’s austerity plan,” Petros Christodoulou, head of the Athens-based Greek debt agency, said today in an e-mailed response to questions. “This should tighten the spreads materially starting from the short end.”
The extra yield that investors demand to buy 10-year Greek bonds over comparable German securities fell 9 basis points to 304 basis points. The spread remains above the 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis.
“The Greek fiscal crisis may be over for now, but sovereign stress is likely to remain a huge issue in the euro area for years to come,” David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, wrote in a note today. “The other euro-area countries suffering some sovereign stress at the moment are unlikely to view the Greek mechanism as any kind of attractive panacea.”
Under the accord brokered by Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, each euro-region country would provide non- subsidized loans to Greece based on its stake in the European Central Bank, a statement said.
EU-IMF Split
Europe would grant more than half the loans and the Washington-based IMF the rest. The plan would only be triggered if Greece runs out of fund-raising options.
“The objective of this mechanism will not be to provide financing at average euro-area interest rates, but to set incentives to return to market financing as soon as possible,” the EU statement said.
The IMF is watching the developments in Europe “closely,” spokeswoman Simonetta Nardin said in an e-mailed statement. “The fund always stands ready to consider a request from a member country for our financial assistance,” she said.
The size of the loans and interest rates were left unclear, and the EU didn’t spell out what would force it to step in.
“The definition of the emergency case is very fuzzy,” Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a note to investors. “As all euro-area countries will have to agree unanimously on the activation of the facility, the activation of the fund is very uncertain.”
‘Later’
Asked what would trigger a European rescue mission, EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters: “All this, we’ll work it out later.”
After objecting to a possible IMF intrusion on the $12 trillion euro-region economy, the ECB endorsed the package, with President Jean-Claude Trichet saying that European governments will remain in control of the process.
Trichet, who told France’s Public Senat television yesterday that surrendering control to the IMF would be “very, very bad,” held his own press conference after the agreement was struck to tone down the remarks.
“I never said the IMF intervention would be this and that,” Trichet said. “I wanted to preserve the responsibility of the governments of the euro area. That is my compass. And I think that is respected.”
Greek Plan
The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history.
Greece needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks. About 8.2 billion euros of debt matures April 20 and 8.5 billion euros on May 19, with about 3.9 billion euros of bills maturing in April.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Greece may ultimately get aid from the IMF worth about 20 billion euros over 18 months, according to an e-mailed note yesterday. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported the aid would total 22 billion euros, citing German officials.
The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU’s limit of 3 percent of GDP this year after the worst recession since at least World War II. While the euro’s German-designed “stability pact” sets financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been sanctioned since the currency debuted in 1999.
Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and today called for a toughening of the fiscal rules, which Germany forced the EU to water down in 2005 after three years of deficit overruns.
Source: businessweek
Dividendos para el 2010 en el IBEX 35
La remuneración al accionista atraviesa una época de vacas flacas. Compañías como Prisa, NH Hoteles, Ence o Clínica Baviera se vieron obligadas el año pasado a suprimir estos pagos por la crisis. Las cotizadas del Ibex tampoco lo han hecho mucho mejor. En 2009, ocho de estas firmas redujeron el importe bruto anual de sus dividendos, 13 lo elevaron y ocho lo mantuvieron. Sacyr e Iberia lo suprimieron. Para los próximos meses, esta tendencia se prolongará, ya que se prevé que ocho empresas lo recorten; 10 lo mantengan y 16 lo incrementen.
Después de que los beneficios de las firmas del Ibex registrasen en 2009 su mayor caída en siete años, las secuelas de estas cifras han repercutido significativamente en el bolsillo de los accionistas. Según datos recopilados de Bolsa de Madrid, 13 cotizadas de este índice elevaron el pago bruto anual a sus inversores en 2009, lo que se traduce en el 37% del total. Por el contrario, el 27% optó por rebajar el desembolso a los inversores, mientras que ocho de las cotizadas lo dejó igual o ligeramente por encima.
Los expertos recuerdan que el importe de los dividendos varía según los resultados anuales de las empresas aunque también estos se pueden desembolsar con cargo a las reservas voluntarias. Además, el reparto o no de dividendos es una decisión libre que cada compañía decide en su Junta Ordinaria.
Este fue el ejemplo de Iberia, donde su consejo de administración propuso a la Junta la cancelación del pago con cargo a los resultados del ejercicio 2008 dentro del marco de su plan de contingencia. La aerolínea defraudaba así a sus accionistas después de haber pagado en junio de ese año 0,17 euros brutos por título. En los últimos dos años, los resultados de Iberia han ido empeorando hasta alcanzar pérdidas de 273 de millones en 2009.
También Sacyr hizo alarde de austeridad y precaución al no premiar a sus accionistas el año pasado. Ya en el ejercicio anterior, la constructora que dirige Luís del Rivero recortó el importe bruto de su dividendo anual al conceder 0,6 euros por papel, frente a los 1,29 euros de 2007.
En contraposición, la constructora protestó cuando el consejo de Repsol, donde es principal accionista al contar con más del 20% del capital, discutió reducir el importe de esta retribución allá por el mes de enero. Finalmente, el consejo dio el visto bueno a un dividendo complementario con cargo a 2009 de 0,425 euros brutos, un 19% menos que en el correspondiente al año anterior.
Entre los mayores incrementos en los dividendos pagados a lo largo de 2009 destacan los desembolsos de Ebro Puleva que retribuyó con un total de 0,36 euros brutos por título, un 100% más que el pagado en 2008. Algo menos lo aumentó Iberdrola (+73%) cuando premió a los propietarios de sus acciones con 0,47 euros brutos por papel. En general, el sector financiero optó por rebajarlos. Así, BBVA abonó 0,437 euros brutos en el conjunto de 2009, frente a los 0,763 euros anteriores. Por otro lado, compañías como Endesa, Ferrovial, Iberdrola Renovables o ArcelorMittal no son comparables por distintas circunstancias (dividendos extraordinarios, fusiones con filiales o dividendos pagados en dólares).
2010 NO DEPARARÁ SORPRESAS POSITIVAS
El consejo de previsiones que maneja Bloomberg contemplan que de las empresas que integran el Ibex 35, ocho de ellas reducirán la cuantía de su próximo dividendo respecto al último desembolsado. Mientras que 10 de ellas lo dejarán intacto y otras 16 lo subirán. Iberdrola Renovables es la única firma para la que no constan estimaciones. Respecto a Sacyr e Iberia no se dan precios exactos sobre los dividendos de 2010.
Los analistas de Bloomberg usan siete factores para fijar una “proyección” de los dividendos futuros, tales como el plan estratégico de la empresa; herramientas de tendencia; la paridad de los put y call, análisis de la industria o el baremo DDT de estimación.
Este último elemento es un termómetro que permite determinar qué rumbo tomará el pago de dividendos. Según las cotas de este indicador, una compañía con puntuación entre -100 y -50 presenta mayor probabilidad de no poder mantener su nivel interés vía dividendos. Mientras que las que se encuentran con una puntuación comprendida entre 50 y 100, podría elevar este ratio.
Si sólo se considerase esta herramienta, Inditex (58) e Indra (50) son los valores con más posibilidades de incrementar el dividendo. Muy próximos a esta línea se sitúan Banco Santander (44) y Ebro Puleva (46). Con signo muy distinto se coloca Ferrovial (-47). No obstante, el DDT puede mostrar distorsiones respecto a la valoración final, ya que es sólo un instrumento más, no el único.
Por ejemplo, una compañía con unos sólidos fundamentales puede tener una puntuación por encima de 50. Sin embargo, si el plan estratégico incluye una importante recompra de acciones, los analistas de Bloomberg estimarán que es más probable que la compañía mantenga su dividendo, en vez de elevarlo.
PREVISIONES DE DIVIDENDOS PARA 2010
Dividendo total pagado en 2009 (importe bruto)
Pronóstico de Bloomberg sobre próximo dividendo
ABENGOA
0,18
Aumentar
ABERTIS
0,6
Aumentar
ACCIONA
3,99
Mantener
ACERINOX
0,35
Cortar
ACS
2,05
Mantener
ARCELORMITTAL
0,4602
Mantener
BME
2,9724
Mantener
BANCO SANTANDER
0,6355
Mantener
BANKINTER
0,2987
Aumentar
BBVA
0,437
Aumentar
BANESTO
0,521
Cortar
BANCO POPULAR
0,3535
Cortar
BANCO SABADELL
0,26
Cortar
CRITERIA
0,16
Aumentar
EBRO PULEVA
0,72
Mantener
ENAGÁS
0,9336
Aumentar
ENDESA
5,897
Cortar
FCC
1,57
Cortar
FERROVIAL*
0,1895
Aumentar
GAMESA
0,2
Cortar
GAS NATURAL
0,98
Aumentar
GRIFOLS
0,3852
Cortar
IBERDROLA
0,47
Mantener
IBERDROLA RENOVABLES
0,025
No cuenta con estimaciones
IBERIA
-
Mantener
INDITEX
1,05
Mantener
INDRA
0,61
Aumentar
MAPFRE
0,15
Aumentar
OHL
0,4526
Aumentar
REE
1,2797
Aumentar
REPSOL
1,475
Aumentar
SACYR VALLEHERMOSO
-
Mantener
TELEFONICA
1
Aumentar
TELECINCO
0,865
Aumentar
TÉCNICAS REUNIDAS
1,29
Aumentar
*Ferrovial; incluido dividendo de Cintra.
Fuente: Bolsa de Madrid, Bloomberg e invertia
Después de que los beneficios de las firmas del Ibex registrasen en 2009 su mayor caída en siete años, las secuelas de estas cifras han repercutido significativamente en el bolsillo de los accionistas. Según datos recopilados de Bolsa de Madrid, 13 cotizadas de este índice elevaron el pago bruto anual a sus inversores en 2009, lo que se traduce en el 37% del total. Por el contrario, el 27% optó por rebajar el desembolso a los inversores, mientras que ocho de las cotizadas lo dejó igual o ligeramente por encima.
Los expertos recuerdan que el importe de los dividendos varía según los resultados anuales de las empresas aunque también estos se pueden desembolsar con cargo a las reservas voluntarias. Además, el reparto o no de dividendos es una decisión libre que cada compañía decide en su Junta Ordinaria.
Este fue el ejemplo de Iberia, donde su consejo de administración propuso a la Junta la cancelación del pago con cargo a los resultados del ejercicio 2008 dentro del marco de su plan de contingencia. La aerolínea defraudaba así a sus accionistas después de haber pagado en junio de ese año 0,17 euros brutos por título. En los últimos dos años, los resultados de Iberia han ido empeorando hasta alcanzar pérdidas de 273 de millones en 2009.
También Sacyr hizo alarde de austeridad y precaución al no premiar a sus accionistas el año pasado. Ya en el ejercicio anterior, la constructora que dirige Luís del Rivero recortó el importe bruto de su dividendo anual al conceder 0,6 euros por papel, frente a los 1,29 euros de 2007.
En contraposición, la constructora protestó cuando el consejo de Repsol, donde es principal accionista al contar con más del 20% del capital, discutió reducir el importe de esta retribución allá por el mes de enero. Finalmente, el consejo dio el visto bueno a un dividendo complementario con cargo a 2009 de 0,425 euros brutos, un 19% menos que en el correspondiente al año anterior.
Entre los mayores incrementos en los dividendos pagados a lo largo de 2009 destacan los desembolsos de Ebro Puleva que retribuyó con un total de 0,36 euros brutos por título, un 100% más que el pagado en 2008. Algo menos lo aumentó Iberdrola (+73%) cuando premió a los propietarios de sus acciones con 0,47 euros brutos por papel. En general, el sector financiero optó por rebajarlos. Así, BBVA abonó 0,437 euros brutos en el conjunto de 2009, frente a los 0,763 euros anteriores. Por otro lado, compañías como Endesa, Ferrovial, Iberdrola Renovables o ArcelorMittal no son comparables por distintas circunstancias (dividendos extraordinarios, fusiones con filiales o dividendos pagados en dólares).
2010 NO DEPARARÁ SORPRESAS POSITIVAS
El consejo de previsiones que maneja Bloomberg contemplan que de las empresas que integran el Ibex 35, ocho de ellas reducirán la cuantía de su próximo dividendo respecto al último desembolsado. Mientras que 10 de ellas lo dejarán intacto y otras 16 lo subirán. Iberdrola Renovables es la única firma para la que no constan estimaciones. Respecto a Sacyr e Iberia no se dan precios exactos sobre los dividendos de 2010.
Los analistas de Bloomberg usan siete factores para fijar una “proyección” de los dividendos futuros, tales como el plan estratégico de la empresa; herramientas de tendencia; la paridad de los put y call, análisis de la industria o el baremo DDT de estimación.
Este último elemento es un termómetro que permite determinar qué rumbo tomará el pago de dividendos. Según las cotas de este indicador, una compañía con puntuación entre -100 y -50 presenta mayor probabilidad de no poder mantener su nivel interés vía dividendos. Mientras que las que se encuentran con una puntuación comprendida entre 50 y 100, podría elevar este ratio.
Si sólo se considerase esta herramienta, Inditex (58) e Indra (50) son los valores con más posibilidades de incrementar el dividendo. Muy próximos a esta línea se sitúan Banco Santander (44) y Ebro Puleva (46). Con signo muy distinto se coloca Ferrovial (-47). No obstante, el DDT puede mostrar distorsiones respecto a la valoración final, ya que es sólo un instrumento más, no el único.
Por ejemplo, una compañía con unos sólidos fundamentales puede tener una puntuación por encima de 50. Sin embargo, si el plan estratégico incluye una importante recompra de acciones, los analistas de Bloomberg estimarán que es más probable que la compañía mantenga su dividendo, en vez de elevarlo.
PREVISIONES DE DIVIDENDOS PARA 2010
Dividendo total pagado en 2009 (importe bruto)
Pronóstico de Bloomberg sobre próximo dividendo
ABENGOA
0,18
Aumentar
ABERTIS
0,6
Aumentar
ACCIONA
3,99
Mantener
ACERINOX
0,35
Cortar
ACS
2,05
Mantener
ARCELORMITTAL
0,4602
Mantener
BME
2,9724
Mantener
BANCO SANTANDER
0,6355
Mantener
BANKINTER
0,2987
Aumentar
BBVA
0,437
Aumentar
BANESTO
0,521
Cortar
BANCO POPULAR
0,3535
Cortar
BANCO SABADELL
0,26
Cortar
CRITERIA
0,16
Aumentar
EBRO PULEVA
0,72
Mantener
ENAGÁS
0,9336
Aumentar
ENDESA
5,897
Cortar
FCC
1,57
Cortar
FERROVIAL*
0,1895
Aumentar
GAMESA
0,2
Cortar
GAS NATURAL
0,98
Aumentar
GRIFOLS
0,3852
Cortar
IBERDROLA
0,47
Mantener
IBERDROLA RENOVABLES
0,025
No cuenta con estimaciones
IBERIA
-
Mantener
INDITEX
1,05
Mantener
INDRA
0,61
Aumentar
MAPFRE
0,15
Aumentar
OHL
0,4526
Aumentar
REE
1,2797
Aumentar
REPSOL
1,475
Aumentar
SACYR VALLEHERMOSO
-
Mantener
TELEFONICA
1
Aumentar
TELECINCO
0,865
Aumentar
TÉCNICAS REUNIDAS
1,29
Aumentar
*Ferrovial; incluido dividendo de Cintra.
Fuente: Bolsa de Madrid, Bloomberg e invertia
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